Sat: New Zealand General Election
On Saturday, October 14th, 2023, New Zealand will hold its general election. This election will see voters electing 120 members to the House of Representatives using New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional voting system. The two main parties competing for control of the 54th Parliament are the incumbent Labour Party, led by PM Hipkins, and the National Party, led by Christopher Luxon. Currently, the Labour Party holds 62 seats, while the National Party holds 34 seats. However, neither party is expected to achieve a majority, so the next government will likely be formed through a coalition involving the smaller parties. The Green Party and Te Pāti Māori, who hold 9 and 2 seats respectively, traditionally support Labour. Right-wing ACT, with 10 seats, is expected to join forces with the National Party. The New Zealand First Party, led by Winston Peters, is projected to return to parliament and may play a crucial role in forming the next government.
Mon: New Zealand CPI
On Monday, we will see the release of New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q3. It is expected that the year-on-year CPI will cool slightly to 5.9% from 6.0%, while the quarter-on-quarter metric is forecasted to increase to 2.0% from 1.1%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has predicted a year-on-year rate of 6.0% and a quarter-on-quarter rate of 2.1%. Analysts from Westpac suggest that the rise in fuel prices and other transport costs, as well as an increase in local taxes and tobacco taxes, will be partially offset by softening food prices. Westpac forecasts a quarter-on-quarter metric of 1.9% and a year-on-year forecast of 5.8%. Despite these softer forecasts, core inflation and non-tradable inflation are expected to remain high.
Mon/Fri: PBoC MLF/LPR
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is likely to maintain its 1-Year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate and benchmark Loan Prime Rates (LPR) next week. Currently, the 1-Year MLF rate is 2.50%, the 1-Year LPR is 3.45%, and the 5-Year LPR is 4.20%. Last month, the PBoC kept its MLF and benchmark lending rates unchanged after previously cutting short-term rates in August. However, it did announce a cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) last month, which released over CNY 500 billion of liquidity to stabilize the Yuan. The latest data releases suggest that no immediate policy adjustments are needed, as Industrial Profits have returned to growth, PMI figures are mixed, inflation data is softer than expected, and trade figures remain mixed.
Tue: RBA Minutes
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes from its October 3rd meeting. During this meeting, the RBA kept the Cash Rate Target at 4.10%, as expected. The RBA reiterated its stance that some further tightening of monetary policy may be required and that returning inflation to the target range of 2-3% is a priority. The RBA noted that inflation has passed its peak but remains too high and significant uncertainties still exist. This meeting marked the inaugural meeting for new Governor Bullock, and the RBA’s comments were similar to those during Lowe’s leadership, highlighting policy continuity.
Tue: German ZEW Survey, US Retail Sales, Canadian CPI
On Tuesday, we will also see the release of several economic indicators. Germany will release its ZEW Survey for October, providing insights into economic expectations and sentiment. The US will release Retail Sales data for September, with expectations of a 0.2% month-on-month increase, and the core measure is expected to rise by 0.1%. Canada will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, with the Bank of Canada expressing concerns about ongoing inflation pressures.
Wed: Chinese GDP, Industrial Output, Retail Sales, UK Inflation, EZ Final HICP
Wednesday will bring several important economic releases. China will release its GDP for Q3, with analysts expecting a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4%. Industrial Output and Retail Sales data for September will also be released, with expectations of 4.3% and 4.5% growth, respectively. The UK will release its inflation data for September, and the Eurozone will release its final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for September.
Thu: BoK Announcement, Bank of Indonesia Announcement, Japanese Trade Balance, Australian Jobs Report, US Philly Fed, Canadian PPI
On Thursday, several central bank announcements will take place. The Bank of Korea and Bank of Indonesia will announce their policy decisions. Japan will release its Trade Balance figures for September, and Australia will release its Jobs Report for September. The US will release the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for October, and Canada will release its Producer Price Index for September.
Fri: EU-US High-level Meeting, PBoC LPR, Japanese CPI, UK Retail Sales, Canadian Retail Sales
On Friday, an EU-US High-level Meeting will take place, and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will announce its Loan Prime Rates (LPR). Japan will release its CPI figures for September, the UK will release its Retail Sales data for September, and Canada will release its Retail Sales data for August.
Please note that the above schedule is listed in chronological order.
