MON: OPEC OMR, Canadian Remembrance Day (Observed).
TUE: IEA OMR; UK Average Earnings/Unemployment (Oct/Sep), EZ Employment (Q3), German ZEW (Nov), US NFIB (Oct), CPI (Oct), Japanese GDP (Q3).
WED: Chinese Retail Sales/Industrial Output (Oct), UK CPI (Oct), EZ Trade Balance (Sep), US PPI Final Demand (Oct), Retail Sales (Oct), Japanese Trade Balance (Oct).
THU: CBRT FSR (Oct); Australian Employment (Oct), Chinese House Prices (Oct), US IJC (6 Nov w/e), Export/Import Prices (Oct).
FRI: US Government shutdown deadline.
UK Labour Market Data (Tue): The unemployment rate in the 3-month period to September is expected to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, with a contraction in employment change predicted at 198k. The headline earnings growth in the 3M/YY period in September is forecasted at 8.3% versus the previous 8.1%, and the ex-bonus print is expected to hold steady at 7.8%. The upcoming release will be based on experimental statistics due to a declining response rate to the Labour Force Survey. Consultants at Pantheon Macroeconomics note that survey indicators suggest payroll employee numbers merely held steady in October, and employment flatlining will likely increase labor market slack. Given the declining reliability of the data, the MPC is expected to pass the release with little fanfare.
Japanese GDP (Tue): Japan’s Q3 Prelim GDP is forecasted to show the first contraction in four quarters. The Q/Q print is expected at -0.1% (prev. 1.2%), while the annualized figure is expected at -0.6% (prev. +4.8%). The recovery in consumption is likely to remain moderate due to rising inflation. BoJ governor Ueda has suggested that the economy is recovering moderately, and the Bank will patiently maintain easing to support economic activity.
US CPI: (Tue): Core CPI is expected to rise 0.3% M/M in October, matching the rate seen in September. The October data is likely driven by stable energy prices and possible declines in vehicle prices as high borrowing costs reduce consumer demand. The incoming inflation data will form a key part of how the Fed proceeds with policy; Chair Powell endorsed a cautious approach to policy, acknowledging that ongoing progress toward the target was not assured and inflation readings have given “a few head fakes.”
Chinese Activity Data (Wed): October Retail Sales are forecast at 7.0% Y/Y (prev. 5.5%), Industrial Output at 4.5% Y/Y (prev. 4.5%) and Urban Investments at 3.1% Y/Y (prev. 3.1%). The data will be used to gauge China’s recovery, which the latest inflation numbers painted as fragile.
Biden-Xi Meeting at the APEC Forum (Wed): US President Biden and China’s President Xi will hold talks on the sidelines of the APEC forum in San Francisco. No big breakthroughs are expected from the talks. Analysts will be looking for incremental signs of improvements in relations.
UK CPI (Wed):Expectations are for headline Y/Y CPI to fall to 4.9% from 6.7%, with the core Y/Y rate seen declining to 5.8% from 6.1%. The release will likely have little bearing on the immediate policy horizon but could bring forward expectations for 2024 rate cuts if it is dovish.
US Retail Sales (Wed): Headline retail sales are seen slipping in October, with the consensus looking for -0.1% M/M (prev. +0.7%). Bank of America’s October credit and debit card spending data showed a decline of 0.2% M/M in October (vs prev. +0.2% M/M in September), taking the annual rate to -0.5% Y/Y (vs +0.7% in September).
