by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2023 09:21:00 AM
The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%.
Leisure and hospitality gained 19 thousand jobs in October. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 223 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 97% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020.
Construction employment increased 23 thousand and is now 425 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.
Manufacturing employment decreased 35 thousand jobs and is now 175 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.
In October, the year-over-year employment change was 2.97 million jobs.
Seasonal Retail Hiring
Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.
This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then, seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long-term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.
Retailers hired 148 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in October. This was about the same as last year and suggests similar real retail sales this holiday season as last year.
Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 participation rate decreased in October to 83.3% from 83.5% in September, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio declined to 80.6% from 80.8% the previous month.
Average Hourly Wages
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).
