Rise in CPI Prompts Policy Discussion

• Core consumer price growth in Japan increased slightly in October.

• The BOJ might withdraw monetary stimulus soon due to persistent inflation.

• The dollar was generally weak as investors held on to the belief that the Fed was done hiking.

The USD/JPY weekly forecast suggests a bearish inclination as Japan’s inflation surge signals a potential shift in the BOJ’s policy, setting the stage for the yen to regain strength. 

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Ups and downs of USD/JPY 

USD/JPY fell but closed the week nearly flat. The decline came as the yen strengthened after core consumer price growth in Japan increased slightly in October. Consequently, it strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan might withdraw monetary stimulus soon due to persistent inflation.

On Friday, Tatsuo Yamasaki, a former leading Japanese currency official, said he anticipates minimal yen weakening from the current 150 against the dollar. Additionally, he predicts a potential strengthening of the yen next year. Furthermore, he believes the Bank of Japan might abandon its negative interest rate policy in April.

Meanwhile, the dollar was generally weak as investors held on to the belief that the Fed was done hiking. 

Next week’s key events for USD/JPY

Important data next week will come from the US, including GDP and manufacturing PMI. These reports will give a clear picture of the economy amid high interest rates. The GDP report will show whether the economy grew or contracted. Meanwhile, the PMI report will show business activity in the manufacturing sector.

Notably, recent data has shown that high interest rates implemented by the Federal Reserve have started cooling the economy. If this trend continues next week, investors will likely increase bets for Fed rate cuts. Consequently, the dollar will suffer, and the USD/JPY will continue to decline.

USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Bulls retreat, bears advance

On the charts, the USD/JPY price has gone from bullish to bearish. The previous bullish bias stopped at the 151.75 resistance level. Although bulls tried twice to push above the resistance, they failed. As such, bears took control by breaking below the 22-SMA. 

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At the same time, the RSI went below 50, signaling a shift in sentiment. Now that bears have momentum, the price will likely continue lower next week. At the moment, the price has pulled back to retest the SMA after finding support at the 148.02 level. There is a high chance the 22-SMA will hold firm as resistance, pushing the price lower.

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