This week on Wall Street, investors will be closely monitoring the US retail sales report for September to gauge the strength of the US consumer. It is expected that monthly sales will have increased by 0.3%, a decrease from the previous month’s 0.6% growth. Sales excluding cars and gasoline are projected to rise by 0.1%, slightly lower than the August reading.
In addition to the retail sales report, the Empire Manufacturing survey will also be watched closely. The survey is expected to show that the September expansion of 1.9 was not the start of a new trend, as the headline reading is predicted to fall to -5.0.
Earnings season and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will also be in focus this week. Major companies such as American Express, Bank of America, J&J, Lockheed Martin, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, Procter & Gamble, and Tesla will be reporting their earnings. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of New York, as well as the release of the Beige Book, will also attract attention from traders.
In Washington DC, attention will be on the House Republicans as they struggle to elect a new House speaker. Eurozone Christine Lagarde will make appearances over the weekend, which are likely to generate interest. However, there may not be much new information to learn from her, as she has already made numerous recent statements. The final reading of the Eurozone HICP inflation will be of interest, although revisions are typically small.
In the UK, there are several key economic releases to watch out for. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be released on Wednesday, followed by jobs figures on Tuesday and retail sales on Friday. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s appearance over the weekend could offer important insights following a close vote at the last meeting. Huw Pill will also be making an appearance on Monday.
In Russia, despite already raising rates aggressively, the central bank will continue to face pressure as inflation rose faster than expected in September. The Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be released next, and the central bank will be hoping for some positive news.
In South Africa, inflation data will be released on Wednesday, followed by retail sales later in the week. While inflation is within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range, any signs of deviation may spark debate around the potential need for another rate hike.
In China, there is a busy week on the economic calendar. The People’s Bank of China’s decision on key benchmark policy interest rates will be watched closely. The consensus is for no rate cut, but the persistent liquidity crunch in the property market and the risk of default by Country Garden may lead to a rethinking of China’s current monetary policy approach. Q3 GDP, retail sales, industrial production, and the unemployment rate for September will also be released and closely monitored.
In India, there are no key data releases scheduled for next week.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes will be released on Tuesday. Market participants will be on the lookout for any dovish comments following the decision to leave the cash policy rate unchanged. Employment change data for September will be released on Thursday.
In New Zealand, the Q3 inflation rate will be released on Tuesday, followed by the Balance of Trade data for September on Friday. Japan will release the Balance of Trade data for September on Thursday, as well as key national inflation data for the month. Singapore will release its Balance of Trade and Non-oil exports data for September on Tuesday.
