The USD/JPY currency pair, after nearly reaching the significant 150.00 level, has slightly retraced. As of Monday morning, the pair hovers near this important mark at 149.93.
This temporary pullback is based on the expectation that the US Federal Reserve might maintain the current interest rates for a longer period at its upcoming meeting.
However, the current circumstances are what truly capture the market’s attention. Breaking above the 150.00 level in the USD/JPY pair could be seen as a signal for Japanese monetary authorities to intervene. Notably, on October 3, the US dollar soared to 150.16 but quickly dropped. It remains unclear whether this decline was due to market jitters or a series of triggered automated trading orders.
The decision to intervene in the currency rests on the perspectives of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance.
Technical Analysis: USD/JPY
On this timeframe, USD/JPY managed to reach the predicted peak of its bullish wave at 149.81 before starting a mild correction to 148.72. Currently, the bullish structure is expanding, targeting 150.77. A recent bullish leg concluded at 149.92, with a consolidation pattern forming below. A bearish adjustment to 149.33 is possible before a surge towards 150.15. From there, the upward trajectory may continue towards 150.77. The MACD supports this forecast, with its signal line comfortably above the zero benchmark, indicating further upward movement.
In the H1 outlook, a consolidation pattern is visible around the 149.73 area. The market is currently showing an upward movement towards 149.90. Subsequent movements may see a dip to 149.72 and then a rally to 150.15, potentially leading to 150.77. The Stochastic oscillator supports this analysis, with its signal line currently above the 80 level, pointing towards the 50 benchmark. An expected rebound from this point, followed by a rise to 80, appears likely.
Conclusion
The USD/JPY continues to approach the key 150.00 level, raising speculation about potential intervention by Japanese financial authorities. While recent price movements indicate bullish momentum, traders should remain cautious and consider both fundamental catalysts and technical signals before making trading decisions.
