GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Does this signify a correction or a reversal?

US:

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.
• The macroeconomic projections were revised higher, and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency but added that they will proceed carefully.
• The US CPI beat expectations on the headline figures, but the core measures came in line with forecasts and the market’s pricing barely changed.
• The labour market remains pretty resilient as seen once again last week with the beat in Jobless Claims, although continuing claims missed for a second time in a row.
• The US Retail Sales last week beat expectations by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures, suggesting the consumers’ spending remains resilient.
• Fed Chair Powell and other FOMC members continue to highlight the rise in long term yields as doing the job for the Fed and therefore they are expected to keep rates steady in November as well.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

UK:

• The BoE kept interest rates unchanged at the last meeting.
• The central bank is leaning towards keeping interest rates “higher for longer”, although it kept a door open for further tightening if inflationary pressures were to be more persistent.
• The latest employment report showed a slowdown in wage growth and some job losses in September which could point to a softening labour market.
• The UK CPI last week slightly beat expectations but given the softening in the labour market it’s unlikely to change the BoE’s stance.
• The UK PMIs last month showed further contraction, especially in the Services sector as the economy continues to slowdown.
• The market doesn’t expect the BoE to hike anymore.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the GBPUSD pair bounced back and rallied all the way back to the key trendline. The moving averages have crossed to the upside, suggesting that the bullish momentum may be stronger, and we could see a bigger correction to the upside. The sellers are likely to step in around the trendline and the key resistance around the 1.2308 level where we have also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the GBPUSD pair yesterday broke above a minor resistance zone around the 1.2220 level. The price got a bit overstretched though as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is diverging with the MACD right at the trendline. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, from a risk management perspective, a pullback into the previous resistance turned support around the 1.2220 level will give the buyers a better level where to buy from as they will also have the confluence with the red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the counter-trendline to increase the bearish bets and target new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today we will get the last part of the UK Labour Market report where a miss to the expectations might weaken the pound, and later in the day we will also see the latest PMIs for the UK and the US. On Thursday, we will see the US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we get the US PCE report which is not expected to change anything for the Fed at this time.