The month of October is behind us and for the 3rd consecutive month stocks moved lower. This month the
- Dow fell -1.36%
- S&P fell -2.20%
- Nasdaq fell -2.78%
The US 10-year moved up for the 6th consecutive month. Over that time period, the yield has moved from 3.428% to 4.92% or 150 basis points.
The 30 year moved higher for the 6th of the last 7 months. The yield has moved from 3.654% to 5.08% (or 143 basis points).
The dollar index (DXY) rose for the 3rd consecutive month with a gain of 0.517%. The DXY has moved up 4.80% over the last 3 months.
The US dollar’s moves for the month vs the major currencies show the greenback rose vs all the major currencies with the exception of the CHF (down -0.50%). The EURUSD was virtually unchanged on the month. The biggest move was vs the NZD (up 2.87%), and the CAD (up 2.19%):
- EUR, up unchanged
- JPY, up 1.55%
- GBP, up 0.46%
- CHF, down -0.50%
- CAD, up 2.19%
- AUD, up 1.45%
- NZD, up 2.87%
In other markets,
- Crude oil fell -10.43% for the month. That was the 1st decline after 4 consecutive months of price increase.. For the year, crude oil is now up 1.04%.
- Gold is up 7.34% for the month and up for the 1st time in 3 months. For the calendar year, gold prices are up 8.84%.
- Silver is up 3% for the month and up for the 1st time in 3 months. For the calendar year, silver is down -4.55%
In the markets today, the US employment index rose by 1.1% which was a touch higher than the 1.0% expected. However, since 2021, the quarterly increases in employment have been mostly above 1%. Before Covid, the numbers were steadily below the 1% level.
The rise today helped to turn the USD higher in the North American session. Prior to that, the USD was mixed (to marginally higher) with the USDJPY leading the way after the Bank of Japan fell short of the market’s expectations for additional tightening despite stronger growth and higher inflation. The JPY is ending the day as the weakest of the major currencies as a result, and the USDJPY is the biggest mover with a gain of 1.76% on the day.
The USD is the strongest of the majors with gains of 0.95% vs the CHF and 0.58% vs the AUD to go with the 1.74% gain vs the JPY. The USD is ending the day with a relative small 0.18% vs the GBP today. The USD rose 0.36% vs the EUR.
Tomorrow is the Fed decision day with the expectations of no change in policy. Market participants will be interested to hear the take on future policy when the Fed chair enters the Q&A starting at 2:30 PM ET. The Fed chair was a bit more hawkish than some of the other Fed officials prior to the blackout period in that he did not explicitly say it was time to pause. However with yields sharply higher over the last 6 months, in addition to the Fed tightening, the yield curve has done additional tightening for the Fed. The problem is growth still remains strong with GDP for the 3rd quarter coming in at 4.9%. That’s not too shabby.
The Fed at their last meeting anticipated one more tightly between now and the end of the year. Will the Fed chair lay the pipe for a December hike at the last meeting?
What is good for investors is October is behind us and hopes for a better November lies ahead.
