As European traders head home, the trading desks around the globe are being manned with skeleton staff until the Asian session begins.
Looking ahead to Friday in the APEC session:
New Zealand (NZD) at 4:45 PM ET
- Retail Sales q/q: Expected at -0.8% (Previous: -1.0%)
- Core Retail Sales q/q: Expected at -1.5% (Previous: -1.8%)
Japan (JPY) at 6:30 PM ET
- National Core CPI y/y: Expected at 3.0% (Previous: 2.8%)
- GfK Consumer Confidence: Expected at -28 (Previous: -30)
UK (GBP) at 7:01 PM ET
- GfK Consumer confidence: Expected -28 vs -30 previous
Japan (JPY) at 7:30 PM ET
- Flash Manufacturing PMI: Expected at 48.8 (Previous: 48.74)
In the European and US session on Friday:
EUR:
- German Final GDP q/q 2:00 AM ET: Estimate -0.1% Previous -0.1%
- German ifo Business Climate 4:00 AM ET: Estimate 87.5 Previous 86.9)
- German Buba President Nagel Speaks at 4 AM ET
- ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 5:00 AM ET
- Belgian NBB Business Climate: Estimate -15.0 Previous -16.8)
CAD:
- Core Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET m/m: Est -0.3% Previous 0.1%)
- Retail Sales m/m 8:30 AM ET: Est 0.0% Prvious -0.1%)
USD:
- Flash Manufacturing PMI 9:45 AM ET: Est. 49.9 Previous 50.0)
- Flash Services PMI: Est. 50.4 Previous 50.6)
For today, the NZD is the strongest of the major currencies, while the CAD is the weakest.
Versus the greenback, the dollar is mostly lower with declines vs the NZD, GBP and AUD accounting for most of the dollars declines:
USD mostly lower today
Crude oil moved lower as the market continued to digest the OPEC+ decision to postpone their meeting scheduled for over the weekend until November 30. However, they have confirmed a meeting which suggests there is probably some sort of solution for their production dilemma, While some countries want to continue to produce and sell (mostly the smaller countries), Saudi Arabia would like to cut production to better align supply and demand. What we know is it wasn’t but two months ago that markets were talking up $100 and above oil. Now with the price down nearly 20%, and back below the 200-day MA at $78.09, the concerns are for increased supply, slower demand, and lower prices.
European shares rose today as the minutes of the last rate meeting showed that policymakers were cautiously optimistic about inflation falling in the Eurozone. However, at the same time they felt that they had to keep the possibility of an interest rate hike on the table. ECBs Wunsch reiterated those thoughts saying his base case scenario was for no more rate hikes.
The EU Stoxx index moved to a new 2-month high.
In the EU session, flash manufacturing and services PMI data was released. Germany and the EU beat the forecasts in both manufacturing and services PMI data, while France’s PMI data missed the forecasts in both sectors. The UK beat the forecasts in both manufacturing and services PMI data as well.
In Germany, their finance minister Lindner said that the government would suspend borrowing limits for 2023 after the court ruling from earlier this week said that money earmarked for pandemic recovery could not be used to fund other government programs.
In Israel, it seems plans for a truce/hostage release is to commence on Friday.
Wishing all a Happy Thanksgiving. Eammon will be with you in a few hours.
