- Recent data indicated a significant increase in US consumer spending in September.
- Markets are pricing a 19% chance of a rate hike in December.
- The Bank of Japan started its two-day monetary policy meeting on Monday.
The USD/JPY outlook for Monday hinted at a modestly bullish trend, with the dollar standing strong and holding the yen near the 150 mark. Meanwhile, all eyes were on the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement.
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The dollar index held steady as investors assessed the effects of robust US economic data on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Notably, recent data indicated a significant increase in US consumer spending in September. It sets a positive trajectory for spending in the fourth quarter.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates later this week. However, the markets are pricing in a 19% chance of a rate hike in December.
The Bank of Japan started its two-day monetary policy meeting on Monday. It marks the start of a week that includes interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Additionally, there are several PMI reports, Eurozone inflation figures, and US nonfarm payrolls to consider.
Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted, “It’s undeniably a packed week. However, the BOJ meeting is the most intriguing one, especially with the growing speculation about potential policy adjustments.”
With the recent upsurge in global interest rates, there’s mounting pressure on the Bank of Japan to modify its bond yield control. As such, there are rumors that the dovish central bank may raise its existing yield cap during this week’s meeting.
USD/JPY key events today
Investors are not expecting important reports from the US or Japan today. Therefore, there is a chance the pair will move sideways.
USD/JPY technical outlook: Bears challenge the uptrend below 150.00.
The USD/JPY price has broken below the 150.00 key level and the 30-SMA as sentiment shifts to bearish. Similarly, the RSI has broken below the key 50 level, separating bullish from bearish momentum.
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However, bears face the challenge of a solid support level at 149.50. An initial attempt to take over failed when the price paused at 149.50 and failed to break below. Nevertheless, this time, bears are showing stronger momentum, as seen in the RSI. Therefore, the price will likely break below 149.50 to retest the 149.00 support level.
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