- Shaped four consecutive weeks of positive higher closes since 27 Oct 2023 low of 32,310.
- Potential start of a major uptrend phase with next major resistance at 39,515.
- Watch 35,175 key short-term support to maintain minor uptrend phase from 10 November 2023 low.
The price actions of the US Wall St 30 Index (proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) have shaped four consecutive weeks of positive higher closes since its recent October 2023 low of 32,310.
The current price level of 35,446 at this time of the writing is just a whisker of 4.3% away from its all-time high level of 36,971 printed on 5 January 2022.
Start of a potential major uptrend phase
Fig 1: US Wall St 30 long-term secular and major trends as of 29 Nov 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)
The long-term weekly chart of the US Wall St 30 Index has exhibited several positive elements; oscillating within a newly formed major ascending channel from the 3 October 2022 low of 28,574, cleared above the 200-day moving average, and weekly RSI momentum indicator inched back up above 50 level.
These observations suggest that the Index has printed two major higher swing low areas on 3 October 2022 and 27 Oct 2023 (around a year apart) that advocate the start of a new major uptrend phase within its long-term secular uptrend in progress since the Great Financial Criss low of March 2009.
The major resistance after its current all-time high of 36,971 stands at 39,515 (upper boundary of the major ascending channel & 1.00 Fibonacci extension from 3 October 2022 low).
Watch the 35,175 key short-term support
Fig 2: US Wall St 30 minor short-term trend as of 29 Nov 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)
Since its bullish breakout from the former medium-term descending channel resistance in place since the August 2023 high, the price actions of the Index have continued to evolve within a minor ascending channel from the 10 November 2023 low of 33,842.
In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to hover above a parallel support at the 45 level which suggests that short-term bullish momentum is likely to be intact.
If the 35,175 key short-term pivotal support holds, the Index may continue its ongoing impulsive up move sequence within its minor uptrend phase with the next intermediate resistance coming in at 35,830 (also the 9/10 February 2022 swing high) in the first step.
However, a break below 35,175 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support zone of 34,830/750 (also the upward-sloping 20-day moving average).
