Analyzing USDCHF Technicals | Forexlive

USD

CHF

• The SNB kept interest rates steady at 1.75% vs. 2.00% expected as the
  central bank sees the significant tightening in recent quarters countering the
  remaining inflationary pressures.
• The SNB Governor Jordan said that “the central bank will
  not hesitate to tighten monetary policy further if necessary”, but the
  conditions at the moment do not call for further tightening at all.
• The Switzerland CPI ticked higher recently but the
  inflation rate is comfortably in the SNB’s 0-2% target band for both the
  headline and core measures.
• The Unemployment Rate matched the
  previous reading hovering at cycle lows.
• The Manufacturing PMI missed expectations and fell
  further into contraction, while the Services PMI remain in expansion.
• The market doesn’t expect the SNB to
  hike anymore.

USDCHF Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the
daily chart, we can see that USDCHF yesterday plummeted following the miss in
the US CPI report. The price is now at the 0.8886 low where we can expect some
buyers stepping in to position for a rally back into the highs. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price continuing lower to increase the
bearish bets into the next support at
0.8750.

USDCHF Technical Analysis –
4-hour Timeframe

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that from a risk
management perspective, the sellers will be better off waiting for the price to
pull back into the swing low level at 0.8950 where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. That
spot would give the sellers a better risk to reward setup. Alternatively, the
price might even push all the way up to the downward trendline where
the sellers will have another opportunity to position for a drop into new lows.

USDCHF Technical Analysis –
1-hour Timeframe

On the 1-hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action around the 0.8886 low where the buyers are
likely to pile in to position for a rally. The first target should be the
0.8950 resistance and upon a break to the upside, the trendline around the 0.90
handle. If the price continues lower and breaks the 0.8877 level, we can expect
the sellers to increase the bearish bets but the risk to reward will be much
worse.

Upcoming Events

Today, we have the US Retail Sales and PPI data with
the market likely giving more importance to the Retail Sales data. Tomorrow, we
will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures where the market will want to see
how fast the labour market is softening.