- The euro ended the week lower as the dollar strengthened on hawkish Fedspeak.
- Fed officials expressed uncertainty about whether interest rates are sufficiently high.
- Investors eagerly anticipate US consumer price data.
The weekly EUR/USD forecast indicates a modest bearish trend, driven by expressed concerns from Federal Reserve officials regarding persistently high inflation levels. This hawkish tone is supporting the dollar against the euro.
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Ups and downs of EUR/USD
The euro ended the week lower as the dollar strengthened on hawkish Fedspeak. US Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, expressed uncertainty about whether interest rates are sufficiently high to tame inflation effectively.
Moreover, he emphasized the Fed’s commitment to adopting a restrictive monetary policy stance to bring inflation down to 2% gradually. “We are not confident that we have achieved such a stance,” he said.
Additionally, three colleagues echoed Powell’s sentiments, underscoring the continued emphasis on taming inflation as the primary concern for the Fed.
Next week’s key events for EUR/USD
Next week, investors eagerly anticipate US consumer price data to gauge the Fed’s progress in fighting last year’s record-high inflation. If prices drop more than expected, it could strengthen the argument for the central bank to start rate cuts sooner.
Additionally, there will be the producer price index report from the US. It will show wholesale inflation, a leading indicator of future consumer prices. Finally, there will be a report on retail sales from the US, showing the state of consumer spending in the country.
EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls secure position above the 22-SMA line.
The EUR/USD bulls have found their footing above the 22-SMA. It is a sign that the reversal from the 1.0501 support level is slowly gaining momentum. This can also be seen in the RSI, which is now steady above 50. Moreover, the price has broken above the 1.0675 resistance level. However, bulls must detach from this level for the price to keep climbing.
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If bullish strength continues, the price will do one of two things in the coming week. First, it might pull back to retest the 22-SMA support before breaking above 1.0675 and heading for 1.0900. Second, it might respect 1.0675 as support and push higher to retest the 1.0900 key resistance level. Either way, the coming week will see more bullish price action unless the price breaks below the 22-SMA.
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