MON: FOMC SLOOS, BoJ Minutes (Sep), BoC Market Participants Survey; Japanese Jibun Final Composite/Services PMIs (Oct), German Industrial Orders (Sep), EZ Final Construction/Services PMIs (Oct), UK Final Construction PMI (Oct), US Employment Trends (Oct).
TUE: RBA Policy Announcement, EIA STEO; Chinese Trade Balance (Oct), EZ Producer Prices (Sep), US International Trade (Sep), Canadian Trade Balance (Sep).
WED: BoC Minutes (Oct), NBP Policy Announcement, Norges Bank FSR (H2), Eurogroup Meeting; German Final CPI (Oct), EZ Retail Sales (Sep).
THU: Banxico Policy Announcement, BoJ SOO (Oct), Riksbank FSR (H2); Chinese CPI & PPI (Oct), US IJC (30th Oct w/e), New Zealand Manufacturing PMI (Oct).
FRI: RBA SOMP; US Veteran’s Day (USTs closed), BoC SLOS; UK GDP (Sep/Q3), Norwegian CPI (Oct), US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Nov), Chinese M2/New Yuan Loans (Oct).
NOTE: Previews are listed in day order
RBA Announcement (Tue):
Analysts expect a 25bps hike by the RBA at the upcoming meeting due to hotter-than-expected CPI data for Q3 and September. The ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures November 2023 contract indicates a 50/50 expectation of an interest rate increase. Governor Bullock noted that CPI was higher than expected but still within their projections. The decision will be finely balanced.
Chinese Trade Balance (Tue):
The release of Chinese trade data will be closely watched as an indicator of domestic and foreign demand in the world’s second-largest economy. Recent data suggests weak demand and uncertainties in both internal and external markets. ING analysts forecast a decline in export growth due to weak external demand.
BoC Minutes (Wed):
The BoC left rates unchanged and maintained guidance for further rate hikes if necessary. Inflation forecasts were revised higher, while growth prospects for 2023 and 2024 were revised lower. The bank expects inflation to return to target by the end of 2025. RBC analysts do not expect additional rate hikes from the BoC due to signs of a softening economy.
Banxico Announcement (Thu):
Private sector analysts predict headline inflation to be 4.6% this year and core inflation to be 5.11%, while growth is forecasted at 3.29% for this year and 2% for 2024. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. Capital Economics expects a slowdown in Mexico’s economy in the coming quarters due to tight monetary policy and weaker growth in the US.
BoJ SOO (Thu):
The Summary of Opinions from the BoJ’s latest meeting will provide insights into the central bank’s thinking after its recent tweak to YCC. Governor Ueda stated that the bank will continue monetary easing and will take additional measures if necessary.
Chinese Inflation (Thu):
The Chinese inflation data will provide further information on the state of China’s economy. Caixin PMI data suggests that cost pressures remained muted, but companies continued to raise their selling prices. Input costs remained in expansionary territory.
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