UPCOMING EVENTS:
Monday:
– Australia Retail Sales
Tuesday:
– Japan Jobs data, Japan Retail Sales and Industrial Production
– Chinese PMI
– BoJ Policy Decision
– Swiss Retail Sales
– Eurozone GDP and CPI
– Canada GDP
– US ECI
– US Consumer Confidence
– New Zealand Jobs data
Wednesday:
– Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI
– US ADP
– Canada Manufacturing PMI
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI
– US Job Openings
– FOMC Policy Decision
Thursday:
– Swiss CPI
– US Challenger Job Cuts
– BoE Policy Decision
– US Jobless Claims
Friday:
– Chinese Caixin Services PMI
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate
– Canada Jobs data
– US NFP
– US ISM Services PMI
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep rates at -0.10% and maintain its policy of targeting the 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) at 0%. There is speculation about a possible adjustment to the policy. Additionally, the BoJ is expected to raise its inflation forecasts to show prices exceeding its 2% target for 2023 and 2024.
On Tuesday, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year (YoY) is expected to fall to 3.2% from 4.3% prior, while the Core CPI YoY is expected to be at 4.2% compared to 4.5% prior. The European Central Bank (ECB) has paused its tightening cycle and is expected to stay on hold until mid-2024 when it may begin a rate cut cycle.
On Tuesday, the US Consumer Confidence is expected to decrease to 100 from 103 prior. The Conference Board survey focuses more on the labor market, while the University of Michigan survey is more about households’ financial outlook. Recent labor market data has shown some weakness, including rising continuing claims.
On Wednesday, the US ADP report, which has a poor track record in forecasting the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), is expected to show 150,000 jobs added in October compared to 89,000 in the previous month.
On Wednesday, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.0. The recent S&P Global Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, showing the sector rebounding from the 2022 recession. Price pressures in the sector are also easing, which is positive for the Federal Reserve.
On Wednesday, the US Job Openings are expected to fall to 9.270 million from 9.610 million prior. Job Openings data has been closely watched as it indicates the strength of the labor market. The US labor market has been softening, with fewer job additions and rising continuing claims.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. The market does not anticipate any rate hikes and sees the possibility of rate cuts in mid-2024. The focus will be on guidance for the December meeting.
On Thursday, the Swiss CPI YoY is expected to be at 1.8% compared to 1.7% prior, while the month-over-month (MoM) reading is expected to be at 0.1% compared to -0.1% prior. Switzerland’s inflation has been within the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) target range of 0-2% for some time.
On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep the bank rate unchanged at 5.25%. There may be differing opinions within the BoE due to the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and softness in the labor market.
On Thursday, the US Jobless Claims are expected to be at 210,000, unchanged from the previous week. Continuing Claims have shown an upward trend, indicating that workers are finding it more difficult to find employment after being laid off.
On Friday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show 172,000 jobs added, down from 336,000 in the previous month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%. Average Hourly Earnings YoY are expected to decrease to 4.0% from 4.2% prior.
On Friday, the Canadian labor market report is expected to show 20,000 jobs added, down from 63,800 in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 5.6% from 5.5% prior. Wage growth will also be closely watched.
On Friday, the US ISM Services PMI is expected to decrease to 53.0 from 53.6 prior. The recent S&P Global Services PMI beat expectations, showing the services sector returning to expansion. Price pressures in the sector continue to ease.
