The CHF is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed with nearly unchanged levels from the close yesterday vs the EUR, GBP, JPY and CAD. The greenback is lower vs the CHF and higher vs the AUD and the NZD.
The US CPI is expected to increase by 0.3% versus 0.6% last month. The year on year for the headline is expected at 3.6% versus 3.7 last month. The core measure is also expected to rise by 0.3%. It is expected to decline to 4.1% from 4.3% last month. The data will be released at 8:30 AM ET. On Wednesday, PPI inflation data for last month was much stronger than anticipated, fueled by a rise in gasoline prices.
Also that time, the initial jobless claims which have been showing continued strength will be released. The expectations are for a modest increase to 210K vs 207K last month.
At 10:30 AM, the EIA weekly energy inventory data will be released with crude stocks expected to show a buildup of 0.492M and gasoline stocks expected to show a drawdown of -0.800M. Distillates are expected to also show a drawdown of -0.802M. Squaring to those numbers will be tied closely eyed closely as the private inventory data released late yesterday showed a huge build of 12.940M barrels, while gasoline stocks increased by 3.645M. Distillates did show a drawdown -3.535M. Despite the large build, crude oil is trading up $0.87 or 1.04% at $84.37.
Fed minutes were released yesterday afternoon, and they showed that fed officials agreed on the need for caution in upcoming interest rate decisions due to two primary risks: failing to tighten policy sufficiently to control inflation and raising rates too high, potentially affecting the broader economy. However, these views were formed before a recent spike in U.S. Treasury yields. Officials now suggest that this increase in yields should be factored into future rate decisions. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the rise in yields might have already begun the process of tightening financial conditions.. The probability of a 25 basis point hike in November moved from 33% on Friday to 12% yesterday. The expectations for a December hike went from 45% to 26%
The US House of Representatives remains in limbo as they continue the process of deciding on a new speaker which is proving to not be an easy feat. Steve Scalise has been nominated by his Republican peers to be the next Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, winning over Jim Jordan, but only by a 113-99 vote. He still requires support from some far-right GOP members to secure the position. The vote to replace the ousted Kevin McCarthy is yet to be scheduled. McCarthy’s departure has resulted in a legislative standstill, with urgent matters like a stopgap spending bill and additional support for Israel and Ukraine pending. It is particularly dangerous time given the hostilities in Israel (and threat of hostilities elsewhere) without a leader. Doing his part Jim Jordan is supporting Scalise as a speaker. However, there are about a dozen holdouts which may stop the vote getting to the 217 votes needed.
Meanwhile, US yields are lower as they react to the Fed minutes and continue to be supported by flight to safety flows from the hostilities in Israel.
US stocks are adding to the gains seen this week and over the last 4 trading days. The Dow industrial average is up 1.19% this week, while the S&P is up 1.19% and the NASDAQ is up 1.70%.
A snapshot of the markets as the NA session gets underway shows:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.87 or 1.04% at $84.37. Inventory data at 10:30 AM
- Spot gold is trading up plus $9.69 or 0.52% at $1883.80
- Spot silver is trading up $0.17 or 0.77% at $22.17
- Bitcoin is trading at $26,775. Yesterday the price traded between $26,533 and $27,474
In the US premarket for US stocks, futures are implying a modestly higher open. The major indices are up for 4 consecutive days coming into the day:
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 115 points. Yesterday the index rose $65.57 points
- S&P index futures are implying a gain of 15.25 points. Yesterday the index rose 18.71 points
- NASDAQ futures are implying a gain of 54 points points. Yesterday the index rose 96.83 points
In the European equity markets, the major indices are moving higher for the 3rd consecutive day
- German DAX, up 0.52%
- France’s CAC, up 0.36%
- UK’s FTSE 100, up 0.64%
- Spain’s Ibex, up 0.57%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, up 0.88% (10 minute delay)
In the US debt market, markets are reopened after yesterday’s Columbus Day holiday
- 2-year yield, 4.986% -1.9 basis points
- 5-year yield, 4.567% -3.7 basis points
- 10-year yield, 4.556% -4.1 basis points
- 30-year yield, 4.703% -3.3 basis points
- The 2 – 10 year spread is trading at -43 basis points basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -41 basis points. Last week the spec out to -26.4 basis points before inverting more over the last 4 trading days.
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are trading mixed:
European benchmark 10 year yields are mixed
